Expansion Strategy in Settlers of Catan

The concept of the Expansion Strategy is to seek a balance of resources and try to expand rapidly early in the game.

In order to win, you’ll need to:

• Get most of your points from settlements and cities. However, it is unlikely that you’ll be able to build 5 cities. The additional points, obviously, need to come from longest road, bonus points, or largest army.
  
• Since you’re likely to have a good supply of brick and wood, the most likely source of additional points is the longest road. Of the 13 games that I won, I had longest road in 7.
  
• Development cards almost always perform a useful function, so, though this strategy doesn’t call for you to focus on buying them, you will occasionally make a purchase or two. In 9 out of my 13 victories, I had at least one bonus point.
  
• In most cases, you’re not going to be buying huge quantities of development cards. However, since soldiers make up a large number of the cards, it’s not inconceivable that you find yourself with largest army (4/13 for me).
  

I played 25 games against the computer using this strategy. Please see this post for details on the setup. My observations and tips are below:

• I won only 13 of 25 games (52%). When I first started playing Settlers, it appeared to me that this strategy of balancing and maximizing resources would be the way to go. It has not lived up to my expectations. In order to win, you simply need too many resources.
  
• Once again, I won well over 50% of my games in which I started in the 3rd or 4th position versus much less than half for those where I started 1st or 2nd.
  
• For this series of games, greater chances of getting resources did not translate into greater chances of winning. Granted that 25 games is an extremely limited sample size, but, for this strategy, it appears that quality trumps quantity every time. You need to get bricks, wood, wheat, and ore in decent quantities in order to win. Lack of any of these resources makes it extremely difficult to win.
  
• Pick your resources carefully. If you ignore the chances of getting a resource based on its number, it is easier to get wood (4 hexes) than brick (3 hexes). Since both are required in equal quantities, you want to focus on brick over wood. Likewise, wheat is more valuable than sheep. They both appear with equal frequency on the board (4 hexes), but wheat is more useful in that it is used in the production of cities while sheep is not.
  
• It’s tempting when using this strategy to disregard ore – a huge mistake. Without cities, it is impossible to win. 5 settlements give 5 points, and longest road gives an additional 2. Without ore, it’s almost impossible to get the additional 3 points.
  
• If you’re a good trader, you could try foregoing sheep. In the course of the game, you’ll need one sheep for each of your settlements and each of your development cards. At most you’ll build 5-7 settlements and a few development cards. Meanwhile, your opponents should have sheep in huge quantities for the four hexes and could be willing to trade. It’s risky but workable.
  

Summary of 25 games using the Expansion Strategy:

• 3rd Player. Initial placement 3 wood, 6 brick, 12 brick, 11 wheat, 10 sheep, 9 ore. Won. Surprisingly, the low chances of getting wood and wheat didn’t hurt me too much. I finished with 8 points from cities/settlements and 2 bonus.
  
• 2nd Player. Initial placement 8 wood, 2 wood, 6 brick, 4 brick, 4 wheat. Won. This one was tight. I got a total of 6 points off buildings, 2 for largest army, and 2 for longest road.
  
• 2nd Player. Initial placement 4 wood, 6 wood, 12 wood, 6 brick, 9 wheat, 11 ore. Lost. I got crushed. I was too dependent on the number 6, which didn’t come up as often as I needed. Struggled to get wheat.
  
• 3rd Player. Initial placement 8 wood, 11 wood, 3 brick, 6 wheat, 4 ore x2. Won. Easy game. 8 points from cities/settlements and 2 bonus.
  
• 1st Player. Initial placement 8 wood, 5 wood, 10 brick, 12 sheep, 3 sheep, 6 ore. Lost. Lack of wheat hurt early development.
  
• 2nd Player. Initial placement 6 wood, 4 wood, 3 wheat, 11 wheat, 6 sheep, 5 sheep. Lost. Lack of brick and ore killed me.
  
• 2nd Player. Initial placement 9 wood, 5 brick, 9 brick, 10 brick, 2 sheep, 10 sheep. Won. My numbers hit a lot early, allowing me to run away with the game. Finished with 8 points from buildings and longest road.
  
• 1st Player. Initial placement 8 wood, 11 brick, 5 wheat, 3 wheat, 10 sheep x2. Lost. I wasn’t able to expand quickly enough. The lack of brick and ore hurt.
  
• 4th Player. Initial placement 3 wood, 5 wood, 4 brick, 6 wheat x2, 11 sheep. Lost. This one was close. I would have won on my next turn. My six drew the robber often and lack of ore didn’t allow me to draw development cards to move it.
  
• 4th Player. Initial placement 6 wood, 4 wood, 2 brick, 6 wheat, 4 wheat, 3 sheep. Won. This one was surprisingly easy considering that I didn’t start with ore, and I was light on brick. I finished with 9 points from buildings and longest road.
  
• 1st Player. Initial placement 11 wood, 10 brick, 8 sheep, 3 sheep x2, 6 ore. Won. Close game. I finished with 6 points from buildings, largest army, longest road, and 1 bonus.
  
• 3rd Player. Initial placement 11 wood, 5 brick, 8 wheat, 6 sheep, 3 sheep, 4 ore. Won. Easy game. I finished with largest army, longest road, 1 bonus, 4 settlements, and 1 city.
  
• 2nd Player. Initial placement 5 wood, 10 wood, 11 brick, 6 sheep, 8 sheep, 3 ore. Lost. This one was miserable. 11 never hit, so I never got brick. I also was poorly situated for expansion.
  
• 4th Player. Initial placement 3 wood, 11 wood, 9 brick, 10 brick, 12 wheat, 6 ore. Won. Easy victory by building 1 settlement and 4 cities and getting 1 bonus point.
• 3rd Player. Initial placement 9 wood, 5 brick, 10 brick x2, 8 sheep, 11 sheep. Lost. Even though I had a brick monopoly, there was no way to win without the wheat and ore to make cities.
  
• 3rd Player. Initial placement 3 wood, 4 wood, 3 brick, 8 brick, 4 wheat, 8 wheat. Won. Extremely close game. Built 2 cities and 3 settlements to go with 3 bonus.
  
• 3rd Player. Initial placement 3 wood, 6 wood, 12 brick, 4 wheat, 11 wheat, 6 ore. Lost. Not nearly enough brick. I was also too heavily invested in the number 6, which didn’t come up often enough in this one.
  
• 1st Player. Initial placement 3 wood, 9 wood, 6 brick, 11 wheat, 6 sheep, 4 sheep. Lost. Close but no cigar. Once again, lack of ore hurt.
  
• 3rd Player. Initial placement 4 wood, 9 wood, 2 brick, 11 wheat, 4 sheep, 8 ore. Won. Tight game. Won with largest army, 3 cities, 1 settlement, and 1 bonus.
  
• 1st Player. Initial placement 9 wood, 5 brick, 6 brick, 2 wheat, 10 sheep, 11 ore. Lost. Wasn’t able to expand fast enough and got cut off by opponent roads. Usually try to concentrate on outside hexes, but the best intersections were in the middle of the board.
  
• 2nd Player. Initial placement 3 wood, 11 wood, 6 brick, 3 brick, 4 sheep, 8 ore. Lost. 3’s and 11’s didn’t come up, so I was starved for wood.
  
• 1st Player. Initial placement 5 wood, 9 wood, 4 brick, 10 brick, 6 wheat, 2 sheep. Won. Very close game. Won with longest road, 3 settlements, and 3 cities.
  
• 2nd Player. Initial placement 10 wood, 2 brick, 9 brick, 10 brick, 5 wheat, 9 sheep. Lost. The opponent who concentrated on the 8’s jumped out to an insurmountable lead.
  
• 2nd Player. Initial placement 5 wood, 6 wood, 9 brick, 10 wheat, 11 sheep, 12 ore. Won. Easy victory. I finished with 3 settlements, 2 cities, longest road, and 1 bonus.
  
• 3rd Player. Initial placement 4 wood, 8 brick, 6 wheat, 3 sheep, 11 sheep, 12 ore. Won. Close one. I finished with 1 settlement, 4 cities, and 2 bonus.

Settlers of Catan Development Card Strategy

The concept for the Development Card Strategy is to ignore wood and brick completely when you are placing your initial settlements. Instead, you want, in order, Ore, Wheat, and Sheep. Cities and Development Cards are your friends.

To achieve 10 victory points, most of the time you'll want to:

• Establish one settlement in addition to your starting 2. You'll need to trade for the Wood and Brick that you need or use Year of Plenty, Monopoly, or Road Building to help yourself out.


• Turn all three settlements into cities. This should be the easiest part of the strategy considering how much Ore and Wheat you'll be producing.


• Purchase large amounts of Development Cards. You should be a shoo-in for Largest Army. Usually, the last 2 points come from bonus points given to you by the Development Cards.

I played 25 games against the computer and tried each time to follow the Development Card Strategy. See this post for more information on the setup. My results and observations are below:

1. I won 16/25 games (64%). While I tried to keep my expectations neutral, I did not think that this strategy was this potent. After playing all 25 games, however, I've changed my mind; this one is definitely playable, and I'll be trying it out when I play over the board games. I also feel that this winning percentage would hold up decently well if I played more games.
2. It's definitely better to be in the 3rd or 4th position (79%) rather than in the first or second (45%).
3. The data certainly seems to suggest that the more chances that you have of hitting one of your resources on any given dice roll, the greater your chance of winning the game. By adding up each resources chance out of 30 (eliminating the 6 chances to roll 7), the smallest number that I obtained was 15 and the highest 22. My winning percentage went up as I the higher the number, and the conclusion seems logical. However, I do not believe that I've played anywhere near enough games to be able to show causation, and I feel that, were I to run enough tests, the quality of resources becomes as important as the quantity.
4. My winning percentage was dreadful for those games when I had less than 5/30 chance of hitting either wheat or ore - 3/11 (27%).
5. I tend to try to avoid loading up on one particular number, especially 6 or 8. For example, If I've already placed first initial settlement next to an 8 ore, I'm loath to place my next one adjacent to an 8 wheat. I'm not sure that this has a large effect on winning percentage. In one game, I noted that 8's did not come up early, and the resulting lack of development may have cost me the game. In other games, however, doubling up had little impact. I think that it's more psychological for me; I'd rather get a small quantity each turn than get lots of resources on a few turns. I hate watching my opponents draw cards while I sit there.
6. It's hard for your opponents to block you in completely when you only need one additional settlement, and it is possible to win with only 2.
7. In only one of my games was I unable to draw the final bonus card that I needed. Regardless of what edition you're using, the percentages of various Development Cards stay approximately the same - 56% for Soldiers; 24% for either Road Building, Year of Plenty, or Monopoly; and 20% for a Victory Point. Since you're drawing a lot of cards, it's likely that you're going to get what you need. The key is to make the best use of the cards that you don't necessarily need.
8. The hardest decision when playing this strategy seems to be determining when to buy a card and when to wait to buy a city. The earlier that you can get cities the better, but you simply cannot wait to buy development cards. You're going to need soldiers to keep the robber off you, and the other, non-VP cards come in handy too. If I'm close to having enough for a city, I'll usually hold out. If I've already bought a couple of cards and have a soldier in waiting, I'll definitely try to save up. Basically, cities trump cards, but cards are important too.
9. The other hard decision is when to expand. If you're in a situation where your opponents can completely cut off your expansion, you need to make sure that you put down a road as soon as possible. Other than that, cities and cards generally take precedence since your initial settlement are probably placed in much better locations than your new one will be.

Summary of 25 games played using the Development Card Strategy:

1. 3rd Player. Initial placement 8 ore, 9 ore, 11 ore, 3 wheat, 10 sheep, 4 brick. Lost. Obviously, only two chances in 30 to get wheat is not enough for this strategy, and I struggled for wheat the whole game.
2. 3rd Player. Initial placement 3 ore, 8 ore, 3 wheat, 8 wheat, 5 sheep, 10 wood. Won. Resource allocation was good as far as percentages went - 7/30 ore, 7/30 wheat, 4/30 sheep. Unfortunately, production was based really heavily on 3's and 8's. These did not occur early, stunting my development. I was barely able to pull the game out.
3. 3rd Player. Initial placement 10 ore, 11 ore, 6 wheat, 9 wheat, 5 sheep, 9 sheep. Won. My production totalled 22, equal to the highest out of all 25 games. Ore was a little lighter than I would have liked, but excess sheep and wheat made up for it. I easily won despite not being able to place a 3rd settlement due to being blocked.
4. 4th Player. Initial placement 4 ore, 8 ore, 6 wheat, 11 wheat, 3 sheep x2. Won. I got perfect resource distribution, and won easily with largest army, 6 points for my cities, and 2 bonus points.
5. 4th Player. Initial placement 6 ore, 6 wheat, 11 wheat, 3 sheep, 5 sheep, 9 sheep. Won. I was heavily invested in 6's, and that number came up a lot early. The win was easy with longest road, 6 points from cities, and 2 bonus points.
6. 1st Player. Initial placement 2 ore, 9 ore, 11 ore, 6 wheat, 6 sheep, 12 sheep. Won. Ore was a little light with only 7/30, but I won with the longest road, 6 points from cities, and 2 bonus points.
7. 4th Player. Initial placement 2 ore, 6 ore, 3 wheat, 6 wheat, 9 sheep, 11 brick. Won. Easy victory with largest army, 6 points from cities, and 2 bonus.
8. 2nd Player. Initial placement 4 ore, 8 wheat, 11 wheat, 3 sheep, 5 sheep, 10 sheep. Lost. Lack of ore KILLED me.
9. 3rd Player. Initial placement 4 ore, 11 ore, 5 wheat, 8 wheat, 4 sheep, 3 brick. Won. Easy victory with largest army, 6 points from cities, and 2 bonus points.
10. 4th Player. Initial placement 9 ore, 9 wheat, 5 sheep, 10 sheep, 10 sheep, 2 brick. Lost despite placing a city on my first turn. Struggled for ore and wheat the whole game.
11. 1st Player. Initial placement 2 ore, 9 wheat, 5 sheep, 9 sheep, 2 brick. Lost. I was on the low end of overall resources with only 18, and I had only 1/30 chance of getting ore. Needless to say, I got toasted.
12. 4th Player. Initial placement 3 ore, 9 ore x2, 6 wheat, 10 wheat, 2 sheep. Won. Getting sheep was a challenge, but a deficiency with that particular resource didn't keep me from winning with largest army, 6 points from cities, and 3 bonus.
13. 1st Player. Initial placement 6 ore, 11 ore, 4 wheat, 10 wheat, 3 sheep, 9 brick. Lost. I had 9 points and couldn't draw one last point from the development card deck; I had tons of soldiers.
14. 1st Player. Initial placement 4 ore, 9 ore, 11 wheat, 6 sheep, 12 brick. Won. This one was close due to the fact that my total initial resources were only 15. I finished with largest army, 6 points from cities, and 2 bonus.
15. 1st Player. Initial placement 6 ore x2, 11 ore, 5 wheat, 11 sheep, 12 wood. Lost. I struggled for resources in this one. Getting ore was dependent on a single 6, which drew the robber often, and only the single 5 gave me wheat.
16. 3rd Player. Initial placement 4 ore, 9 ore, 6 wheat, 5 sheep, 11 sheep x2. Won. I had plenty of ore, wheat, and sheep, which led to an easy victory with largest army, 5 points for 2 cities and a settlement, longest road, and 2 bonus points.
17. 3rd Player. Initial placement 5 ore, 4 wheat, 8 wheat, 11 wood, 6 brick. Won. Despite my best efforts to play a Development Card strategy, the best placements for ore and wheat gave me brick and wood, so this one played more like an expansion strategy. I finished with longest road, largest army, 2 cities, 2 settlements, and 1 bonus point.
18. 4th Player. Initial placement 4 ore, 3 wheat, 8 sheep, 5 sheep, 11 sheep. Lost. This strategy is not viable with such low quantities of ore and wheat.
19. 1st Player. Initial placement 6 ore, 2 wheat, 9 sheep, 9 sheep, 10 sheep, 5 wood. Lost. I struggled with wheat, having only 1/30 chance to get it. Still, I would have won next turn.
20. 2nd Player. Initial placement 5 ore, 11 ore, 10 wheat x2, 6 sheep, 8 sheep, 3 wood. Won. I cruised to victory with plenty of resources. I had 8 points for 4 cities and 2 bonus.
21. 1st Player. Initial placement 3 ore, 5 wheat, 10 wheat x2, 8 sheep, 11 sheep. Lost. I didn't have nearly enough ore!
22. 3rd Player. Initial placement 4 ore, 5 ore, 8 wheat, 12 wheat, 3 sheep, 9 sheep. Won. This one was easy because of the near perfect distribution of resources - 7/30 ore, 6/30 wheat, 6/30 sheep. I finished with largest army, 6 points for cities, and 2 bonus.
23. 2nd Player. Initial placement 3 ore, 6 ore, 6 wheat, 12 wheat, 9 sheep, 11 wood. Won. I had good resources again, very close to last game. I finished with longest road, 6 points from cities, and 2 bonus.
24. 3rd Player. Initial placement 8 ore, 5 wheat, 10 wheat x2, 9 sheep, 4 brick. Won. I had a ton of resources, which made for an easy game. I finished with longest road, 6 points from cities, and 2 bonus.
25. 1st Player. Initial placement 8 ore, 8 wheat, 3 wheat, 4 sheep, 4 wood, 3 wood. Won. I had plenty of ore and wheat due to 8's coming up a lot. I finished with largest army and 8 points for cities.

3 Strategies in Settlers of Catan

I have identified three strategies to use while playing Settlers of Catan:

1. Development Card Strategy - Focus on Ore, Wheat, and Sheep, and buy lots of development cards.
2. Port Strategy - Settle a 2-1 port and concentrate on that resource.
3. Expansion Strategy - Expand as far and as fast as possible. Focus on Wood, Brick, Wheat, and Sheep.

My plan is to play 100 games against 3 computer opponents (1 Neutral Expert, 1 Aggressive Advanced, and 1 Neutral Advanced). For the first 25 games, I'll play Strategy 1, regardless of what the board looks like. For the second 25, I'll play Strategy 2; for the third, strategy 3. For the last 25 games, I'll play whichever strategy seems to fit the board best.

I'll write a post describing the results of each 25-game segment of my test. Let's see what I can learn.

Settlers of Catan - General Strategy

The last post covered strategy for the placement phase in Settlers of Catan . This one offers up some general strategies for the game:

• Do not discount how important it is to get off to a quick start. If you can place a third settlement significantly faster than your opponents, you gain the potential for more resources, helping you to outpace your foes even more. Your best bet is to carefully place your initial settlements and roads in optimal positions as I referred to in my last post.


• If wood and brick look to be scarce, consider a card strategy instead. Forget the two entirely and load up on wheat, sheep, and ore. Use the Road Building card to create a space for a new settlement. Then you just have to trade for one brick and one wood to build it. You should easily get largest army, be able to make all three settlements into cities, and get two victory points directly from your cards to get you to 10.


• I played with a friend recently who loves to cut people off by building roads. If you really want to annoy one of your opponents, this is the way to do it. On the other hand, if you want to win, it's an epic fail. Both you and the foe that you are annoying won't have a chance to win. He'll not be able to build anywhere, and you'll devote too many resources to roads. Meanwhile, one of the other players will pretty much cruise to victory. It's not bad to strategically block opponents occasionally, but I wouldn't advise making it your primary strategy.

Settlers of Catan - Initial Phase Observations

I've been playing Settlers of Catan often lately. Here are some of my thoughts on strategy.

It seems to me that the game can easily be won or lost in the set up phase. Here are some of my observations:

• The first thing that jumped out at me, obviously, was the probability of each number being rolled. Fortunately, the game board does a lot of the work for you on this one. Each hex has dots representing the number of times out of the 36 possible combinations that that number will come up. For example, a 6 will occur 5 times out of 36 (1 and 5, 5 and 1, 2 and 4, 4 and 2, and 3 and 3). Thus 5 dots appear on the hexes with the number 6. The higher the combined number of dots at the intersection, the better. 10, 11, and 12 are all high totals.


• The second consideration regarding where to place your settlement is what resources you'll be getting. Do you want to make sure that, with your two settlements, you have access to each of the 5 resources or do you want to load up on some and trade? I've tried each of these strategies, and they both seem to work.


• How many different numbers pay you resources? I find that I like to try to get as many different numbers as possible on my initial setup rather than duplicating. Ideally, if you don't count the rarely seen 2 and 12, I'd like to get 6 our of the remaining 8 numbers. This strategy minimizes the luck component because you're collecting resources on almost every turn. Also, be wary about starting with multiple settlements grouped around the same hex. This situation tends to attract the robber, which can seriously hamper your production early.


• Don't forget that you get starting resources based on the last settlement that you place. Since wood and brick are so valuable early, if you place the second one next to these two resources, it helps.


• Is it better to go for a port or an intersection that gives you three resources? You're giving up a lot for that port. To begin with, it's usually the second settlement that you place, meaning that you're only getting only two resources instead of three to start. More importantly, though, you're giving up a lot of opportunities to get extra resources. That's one less number that you have available than your opponents. I find that it's only really worth it if you can max out on that particular resource by having at least 3 chances to get it.


• Once you've placed your settlements, you have the equally important choice of which direction to lay out the road. For this decision, you need to think about where your opponents are likely to play and try to give yourself multiple options. If your foes cut off both your roads from the start, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for you to recover.